Public evidence · complete recordNumbers without
Numbers without
an asterisk.
Every public selection belongs here—captured before kickoff, settled under one policy and retained whether it wins, loses, voids or is withdrawn.
Daily model cohort · CollectingProbability and price.
Probability and price.
Measured separately.
One immutable pick may be issued each UTC day for a fixture inside the next seven days. The policy still requires at least 55% estimated win probability, positive expected value and a current two-sided price.
Total picks33 settled · 0 pending
Avg. estimated win probability58.77%locked before kickoff
Actual hit rate33.33%1W · 2L
ROI-33.33%-1.00u · daily cohort only
Closing line value8.38%100.0% coverage
Max drawdown1.00u1 longest losing streak
Daily model history
Research cohortDaily pick ledger
DateSelectionPriceResultP&LProof
2026-08-31Lecce vs RomaUnder 2.5 goals · 55.8%1.80Close 1.80 · CLV 0.0%lost-1.00u
4d35c7a6…2026-09-01Roma vs AtalantaOver 2.5 goals · 61.3%2.00Close 1.66 · CLV 20.5%won+1.00u
768c2d2c…2026-09-02Brighton & Hove Albion vs Leeds UnitedOver 2.5 goals · 59.2%1.80Close 1.72 · CLV 4.7%lost-1.00u
74b43181…Calibration evidence
Credibility is earned one forecast at a time.
The 500-observation target measures the current frozen methodology, not forced or paid picks. 99 settled fixtures remain archived across all cohorts; older methodologies never inflate the current evidence gate.
0 · Collection starts100 · Early signal500 · Review cohort
Append-only selection history
Claims lockedThe public ledger
DateSelectionPriceResultP&LProof
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No public selection has been published yet.
This is a real empty ledger, not a demo. Shadow candidates and editorial views are excluded from public performance.
One policy.
Every outcome.
Captured price
The reference price and timestamp are stored at publication, before the result is known.
All results retained
Wins, losses, voids, withdrawals and corrections remain in their proper lifecycle.
Derived performance
P&L, ROI, CLV and drawdown are computed from ledger rows—not typed into marketing cards.
Private validation
Install free app Inspect the product while evidence builds.
No paid picks and no performance claims. See exactly how abstention, prices and proof work today.
Historical performance never guarantees a future result. FORM/PRICE explains uncertainty; it does not remove it.