Define one exact question
Version the fixture, competition, Over/Under 2.5 line, side and target decision horizon. Similar-looking markets are not interchangeable.
Output · market keyFrom match data
to a priced probability.
The system does not ask an LLM to guess a winner. It builds a timestamped quantitative view, challenges it against the market and preserves the decision before the outcome exists.
Estimate the probability
Use only features available at the cutoff. Separate training, calibration and prospective evaluation so the result cannot leak backwards.
Output · probability + model versionInterrogate the price
Capture both sides, remove margin under a stated method and compare the estimate with fresh, attainable prices—not a later screenshot.
Output · fair and minimum pricePublish or abstain
Probability, positive estimated value, freshness, source depth and evidence status must agree. Failure produces a pass, not a forced tip.
Output · model view, signal or passSettle the permanent record
The pre-match row stays immutable. Outcome, unit P&L, price coverage, calibration and drawdown are derived from the complete cohort.
Output · auditable ledgerTwo publication levels
A daily model view is not a verified signal.
The Daily Model Pick helps build a prospective sample. A stricter Qualified Signal remains locked until the evidence cohort and independent gates pass.
Private validation
Open Matchday See the system in its honest state.
No invented proof, no checkout and no performance guarantee.