Fair odds and implied probability
Translate decimal odds into a probability, then separate a market quote from the price your own estimate would consider fair.
The basic translation
Decimal odds can be translated into raw implied probability with 1 divided by the odds. A quote of 2.00 implies 50%; 1.80 implies about 55.6% before adjusting for bookmaker margin.
A model probability of 58% corresponds to model-implied fair odds of about 1.72. That number is a neutral break-even reference, not a recommended stake.
Price changes the decision
The same 58% forecast has positive theoretical expected value at 1.80 and negative theoretical expected value at 1.65. Forecast and price therefore belong in the same sentence.
FORM/PRICE records the observed quote, observation time and minimum acceptable price so that later market movement cannot rewrite the original decision.
The useful three-number view
Read every priced forecast as three linked numbers: estimated probability, reference price and minimum acceptable price.
- Probability describes the model view.
- Reference price describes what was observed.
- Minimum price describes where the estimated edge disappears.
Sources
Direct links are preserved so the editorial reasoning can be checked independently.